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Federal Reserve Governor Cautions on Inflation Policy as Rate Hike Probabilities Rise

2026-07-13

The BareStory

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advised caution regarding rapid interest rate increases while addressing persistent inflation during a speech in New York. Waller noted that inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target, driven by factors such as 2025 tariffs, elevated energy costs from Middle East conflict, and demand related to artificial intelligence. While acknowledging past delays in addressing inflation during 2021 and 2022, he warned against overcorrecting by raising rates too quickly without sufficient data.

The remarks coincided with an increase in market expectations for an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on July 29. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a quarter-point rate increase rose to 46.5% on Monday, up from 34% the previous day. Prediction platform Kalshi also showed the likelihood of a rate hike rising to 36% on Monday.

These shifting expectations followed an announcement by President Donald Trump regarding a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz and a 20% toll on cargo in the waterway. Following the announcement, U.S. oil prices increased by more than 5%, exceeding $75 per barrel.

The developments occurred ahead of the scheduled release of the June Consumer Price Index. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones anticipated that annual headline inflation would slow to 3.8% in June, down from 4.2% in May. Waller stated he would require several months of lower core inflation data before feeling confident that inflation is on a downward path.

Left Perspective

  • Shielding Vulnerable Working Families
  • Exposing Corporate-Driven Cost Shocks
  • Preventing Policy-Induced Economic Harm

Right Perspective

  • Preserving Long-Term Price Stability
  • Factoring In Macroeconomic Realities
  • Demanding Rigorous Empirical Proof

How it may affect me

As a U.S. reader:

• In the short term, you will likely face higher costs at the gas pump and for goods due to a five percent spike in U.S. oil prices exceeding seventy-five dollars per barrel following the announcement of a blockade of Iranian ports and a cargo toll.

• If the Federal Reserve decides to raise interest rates in July, you could see a rise in borrowing costs for credit and housing, which may place additional financial strain on low- and middle-income families.

• You face a higher likelihood of an interest rate hike at the upcoming July Fed meeting as market probability expectations have risen to nearly forty-seven percent, which may suppress short-term economic growth and wage gains.

• In the long term, you may experience either sustained price stability if the Federal Reserve successfully manages inflation with data-driven rate increases, or a potential artificial recession and job losses if the central bank overcorrects by raising rates too quickly.

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