Precious metals and US stock indexes rise following softer-than-expected jobs report

2026-07-04

The BareStory

Spot gold prices rose 1.4% on Friday morning to trade around $4,182.28 per ounce, positioning the precious metal for its first weekly gain in five weeks. This recovery follows a 2.3% weekly increase, after gold previously experienced its weakest quarter in 13 years during the three months leading up to June. Other precious metals also grew on Friday morning, with spot silver increasing 2.9% to $62.77 an ounce, spot platinum rising 2.8% to $1,660.10, and palladium climbing approximately 1% to $1,280.09.

The upward movement in gold and stock markets followed the release of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on Thursday. The report showed the American economy added 57,000 jobs in June, falling below the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 115,000 and the downwardly revised 129,000 jobs added in May. In response, market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September decreased. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the priced-in probability of at least a quarter-point rate hike in September fell to 53.5%, down from 65% prior to the jobs report.

All three major U.S. stock indexes finished the holiday-shortened week higher, supported by the lower interest rate expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record close on Thursday. Conversely, the Nasdaq faced consecutive daily losses earlier in the week due to a drop in semiconductor stocks, while the S&P 500 remained flat during the first two days of the third quarter. Strategists at OCBC stated they are cautiously constructive on gold in the near term because the softer payroll data reduces hawkish risks, though they advised tactical caution due to steady unemployment, hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric, and ongoing inflation risks.

The stock market also saw significant movement in technology and cybersecurity sectors. Shares of Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike rose 14.5% and 10.7% respectively by the end of the week, following reports concerning Chinese artificial intelligence capabilities in identifying code vulnerabilities. Additionally, Meta Platforms shares increased by more than 8% on Wednesday amid reports that the company is planning to launch a cloud infrastructure business to sell excess artificial intelligence computing power and models.

Left Perspective

Shield Vulnerable Working Families
Expose Corporate Profit Distortions
Prevent Artificial Economic Suffocation

Right Perspective

Calibrate Systemic Growth Rates
Incentivize Efficient Capital Allocation
Navigate Structural Inflationary Risks

Left Perspective

• Shield Vulnerable Working Families The primary measure of economic health must be the security of working-class livelihoods rather than the soaring valuations of financial assets. The addition of only 57,000 jobs in June, falling drastically short of the 115,000 forecast, exposes deep-seated fragility in the labor market and threatens the financial stability of average households. When employment growth slows down, it signals that corporations are pulling back on hiring, leaving workers with fewer opportunities and less bargaining power.

• Expose Corporate Profit Distortions Wall Street’s positive reaction to weak employment data reveals a fundamental misalignment between the stock market and the real economy. The fact that the Dow Jones reached a record close on Thursday because bad economic news makes a Federal Reserve rate hike less likely proves that speculative capital prioritizes cheap money over broad-based prosperity. Asset classes like gold and silver rising while job creation stalls illustrates how the financial system is structured to enrich capital holders at the expense of labor.

• Prevent Artificial Economic Suffocation Policymakers must immediately halt aggressive monetary tightening to prevent driving the broader population into an avoidable recession. With the priced-in probability of a September rate hike dropping to 53.5%, the Federal Reserve must heed this signal and prioritize its mandate of maximum employment. Continuing to threaten rate increases despite cooling jobs data and steady unemployment risks crushing consumer demand and exacerbating inequality.

Right Perspective

• Calibrate Systemic Growth Rates Long-term economic stability requires cooling overheated labor markets to bring core inflation sustainably back to baseline targets. The softer-than-expected nonfarm payroll increase of 57,000 serves as a necessary safety valve, signaling that aggregate demand is moderating and reducing the risk of a wage-price spiral. A balanced labor market is the most reliable foundation for preserving the purchasing power of capital and ensuring predictable corporate planning.

• Incentivize Efficient Capital Allocation The market's positive response to the cooling jobs data demonstrates the efficiency of forward-looking financial mechanisms. Lower interest rate expectations reduce the cost of capital, allowing high-growth sectors to fund innovation, as seen in the significant rise of Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, and Meta Platforms. Capital naturally flows to high-yield technology and cloud infrastructure opportunities when monetary policy risks begin to stabilize.

• Navigate Structural Inflationary Risks While the immediate reduction in hawkish rate expectations supports equity markets, the persistence of underlying inflation demands strict fiscal and monetary vigilance. As highlighted by the tactical caution advised due to steady unemployment and hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric, rushing to cut interest rates prematurely could reignite inflationary pressures. Policymakers must maintain institutional continuity and resist political pressure to ensure long-term currency and market stability.

How it may affect me

As a U.S. reader:

• You may experience a more difficult job market with fewer hiring opportunities and reduced worker bargaining power in the short term, as the U.S. economy added only 57,000 jobs in June, well below the forecast of 115,000.

• You could see a reduced likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September, with the priced-in probability falling to 53.5%, potentially halting aggressive monetary tightening and stabilizing borrowing costs.

• If you hold investments in retirement accounts or personal portfolios, you may benefit from short-term gains in U.S. stock indexes, precious metals like gold and silver, and specific technology and cybersecurity stocks such as Meta Platforms, Palo Alto Networks, and CrowdStrike.

• In the long term, you may experience either preserved purchasing power due to a cooling labor market that helps control inflation, or conversely, a risk of reignited inflationary pressures if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates prematurely.

Precious metals and US stock indexes rise following softer-than-expected jobs report

The BareStory

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Right Perspective

How it may affect me

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