The BareStory
The 2026 tax filing season officially began on January 26, with the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) expecting to receive approximately 164 million individual returns by the April 15 deadline. According to the agency, taxpayers who file electronically can typically expect to receive refunds in less than 21 days. However, the IRS noted that returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) or the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) are legally required to be held for fraud screening, meaning those refunds will not be issued until March 2 at the earliest.
Experts and financial analysts project that many filers could see larger refunds this year following 2025 tax legislation enacted under President Donald Trump. Key changes affecting 2025 returns include an increase in the standard deduction to $15,750 for single filers and $31,500 for married couples filing jointly. The legislation also raised the maximum Child Tax Credit to $2,200 and introduced a new $6,000 deduction for eligible seniors. Additionally, homeowners may see impacts from an expanded state and local tax (SALT) deduction.
Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy for the Bipartisan Policy Center, attributed the potential for higher refunds to the new tax cuts and the fact that the IRS did not update employer withholding tables after the laws were passed. An analysis by financial services company Piper Sandler projected that the average refund could rise by roughly $1,000 from last year's average, which was approximately $3,000 to $3,200.
While the IRS encourages electronic filing and direct deposit—noting that it began phasing out paper refund checks late last year—some observers have raised concerns about processing capacity. Janet Holtzblatt, a senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, warned that taxpayers could face service issues and delays due to previous IRS employee cuts and the effects of a federal shutdown. The IRS did not immediately comment on those specific concerns.
How it may affect me
As a U.S. reader:
You could receive a refund averaging $1,000 more than last year due to higher standard deductions, increased credits, and the fact that employer withholding tables were not updated.
If you claim the Earned Income or Additional Child Tax Credits, you must wait until at least March 2 to receive your refund due to mandatory fraud screenings.
You may encounter processing delays or difficulty accessing IRS support services this season resulting from previous agency staffing reductions and the lingering effects of a federal shutdown.
You should prepare to file electronically and use direct deposit to ensure timely payment, as the IRS began phasing out paper refund checks late last year.
Eligible seniors and homeowners may qualify for reduced tax liability through a newly introduced $6,000 deduction for older adults and an expanded state and local tax deduction.
