• Projected decline in annual averages The analysis forecasts that U.S. gasoline prices will average $2.97 per gallon in 2026, representing a 13-cent decrease from the previous year. If realized, this would mark the lowest annual average recorded since 2020, suggesting a favorable shift for consumers compared to recent trends.
• Strong production driving lower costs The drop in prices is attributed to a combination of strong refinery output and robust crude production. These supply-side factors, coupled with softer seasonal demand observed in late 2025, are expected to maintain downward pressure on fuel costs throughout the year.
• Reduction in consumer spending Households are projected to spend an average of $2,083 on gasoline this year, which the report describes as a slight reduction compared to 2025. Additionally, the outlook for commercial transport is improving, with diesel prices expected to fall from $3.62 to a national average of $3.55 per gallon.
How it may affect me
As a U.S. reader:
• You are projected to spend slightly less on fuel in 2026, with average household gasoline costs estimated at $2,083 annually due to strong refinery output.
• Drivers should anticipate seasonal price volatility, with costs likely rising to approximately $3.20 per gallon during spring and early summer before dropping later in the year.
• Your actual savings will depend heavily on location, as Gulf Coast prices may fall under $3 while costs in California and the Northeast remain higher.
• Geopolitical events, such as a military raid in Venezuela, or adverse weather conditions could disrupt these forecasts and cause unexpected fluctuations in fuel costs.
• The national average price for diesel is expected to decrease to $3.55 per gallon, potentially lowering expenses for industries and services relying on commercial transport.