The BareStory
U.S. gasoline prices are projected to average $2.97 per gallon in 2026, marking a 13-cent decrease from 2025 and potentially the lowest annual average since 2020, according to a new analysis by GasBuddy. The forecast suggests a continuation of trends observed in late 2025, where prices dipped due to strong refinery output, robust crude production, and softer seasonal demand.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for the organization, stated that while fuel will not be extremely cheap, the outlook is favorable for drivers. The report estimates that the average household will spend $2,083 on gasoline this year, a slight reduction compared to the previous year. Diesel prices are also expected to decline, with a forecasted national average of $3.55 per gallon, down from $3.62 in 2025.
Despite the lower overall average, the analysis predicts price volatility throughout the year due to weather, seasonal changes, and geopolitical risks. According to the forecast, prices will likely follow standard seasonal patterns, rising to approximately $3.20 per gallon between spring and early summer before dropping to an average of $2.83 after June. Regional variances are also anticipated, with Gulf Coast states expecting prices well under $3, while higher costs remain likely in the Northeast and California.
The report also highlighted external factors that could influence these projections, specifically noting geopolitical events as a source of market uncertainty. The analysis identified a military raid in Venezuela as a situation with the potential to impact fuel costs, though specific details regarding the magnitude of this impact were not outlined in the initial summary of the findings.
How it may affect me
As a U.S. reader:
• You are projected to spend slightly less on fuel in 2026, with average household gasoline costs estimated at $2,083 annually due to strong refinery output.
• Drivers should anticipate seasonal price volatility, with costs likely rising to approximately $3.20 per gallon during spring and early summer before dropping later in the year.
• Your actual savings will depend heavily on location, as Gulf Coast prices may fall under $3 while costs in California and the Northeast remain higher.
• Geopolitical events, such as a military raid in Venezuela, or adverse weather conditions could disrupt these forecasts and cause unexpected fluctuations in fuel costs.
• The national average price for diesel is expected to decrease to $3.55 per gallon, potentially lowering expenses for industries and services relying on commercial transport.
