The BareStory
American consumer confidence declined in December despite federal data indicating the strongest economic growth in two years. A report from The Conference Board, a business group, showed its consumer confidence index fell 3.8 points to 89.1, its lowest reading since April. The drop in sentiment occurred as separate data showed the nation's GDP grew at a 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter.
Perceptions of the job market also weakened, according to the business group's survey. The share of consumers describing jobs as "plentiful" decreased, while the portion calling jobs "hard to get" increased. The Labor Department reported the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, its highest since 2021, and that average monthly job creation has slowed. The Conference Board's chief economist, Dana Peterson, stated that survey responses cited prices, inflation, and tariffs as primary concerns.
Despite declining confidence, consumer spending has remained strong. The Commerce Department reported that consumer spending grew by 3.5% in the third quarter, and the National Retail Federation forecasted that holiday spending would exceed $1 trillion for the first time. This spending has been accompanied by rising debt, with a LendingTree survey finding that 37% of Americans accumulated holiday debt this season. The average amount taken on rose to $1,223, up from $1,181 last year, according to the survey.
Other reports indicated a broader trend of rising consumer credit. A TransUnion report from the third quarter showed the average credit card balance per consumer stood at $6,523, a 2.2% increase from the previous year. For the 11th consecutive month, The Conference Board's index of short-term expectations remained below a level that can signal a future recession. An economist with High Frequency Economics, Carl Weinberg, noted in a report a disconnect in economic data, observing that while spending suggests incomes are rising, payroll reports indicate they are slowing.
How it may affect me
As a U.S. reader:
• Finding a job may become more difficult, as the unemployment rate has risen and a growing number of people report that jobs are "hard to get."
• Households may face increased financial strain due to rising debt, with average credit card balances and holiday-related debt amounts both increasing from last year.
• The risk of a future recession may be elevated, as one economic index has remained below a level that can signal a downturn for 11 consecutive months.
