The BareStory
A report from payroll processing firm ADP indicated that private sector job losses in the U.S. have accelerated over the past four weeks. According to the report released Tuesday, companies shed an average of 13,500 jobs per week during this period, an increase from the average weekly loss of 2,500 jobs reported one week prior. This data is serving as an alternative economic indicator due to a government shutdown that has delayed official statistics.
The shutdown has affected the release schedules for agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with the next official jobs report not expected until December 16. The lack of official data will leave Federal Reserve policymakers with less information for their upcoming meeting on December 9-10. Following recent calls from several Fed officials for additional interest rate reductions, market expectations have reportedly shifted to anticipate a rate cut in December. One chief economist at Goldman Sachs stated in a client note that he expects a rate cut on December 10.
In the housing market, total mortgage application volume increased by 0.2% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The rise was driven by an 8% weekly increase in applications for home purchases, which were also 20% higher than in the same week a year prior. In contrast, applications to refinance a home loan decreased by 6% for the week.
The average contract interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose slightly to 6.40%, its highest level since early October, according to the MBA. An MBA Vice President, Joel Kan, stated that affordability challenges are making government loan programs more appealing. Separately, an executive at Mortgage News Daily, Matthew Graham, attributed a slight fall in mortgage rates at the start of this week to several factors, including the weak employment report from ADP.
How it may affect me
As a U.S. reader:
• The reported acceleration in private sector job losses may increase concerns about job security for some workers in the near term.
• An anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cut could soon lead to lower borrowing costs for consumer products like credit cards and auto loans.
• Prospective homebuyers face rising mortgage rates, but weak economic data could cause those rates to fall, creating uncertainty for near-term borrowing costs.
• A government shutdown has delayed official economic reports, leaving policymakers and the public with less information to assess the U.S. economy's health.
