Economy

Thanksgiving Dinner Costs Decline, Driven by Lower Turkey Prices

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Nov 22, 2025

THE BARE STORY

The average cost of a traditional Thanksgiving meal has decreased this year, primarily due to a drop in turkey prices. The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) calculated the national average cost for a dinner serving ten people at $55.18, a 5% decrease from the previous year. The AFBF noted, however, that this price remains about 13% higher than before the pandemic. A separate estimate from Wells Fargo placed the cost for a similar meal between $80 and $95.

The price reduction was largely attributed to a 16% drop in the average price of a 16-pound turkey, according to the AFBF. Economist Brandon Parsons stated that turkey production increased as an avian flu outbreak subsided. Other factors contributing to the overall decrease include easing supply chain pressures and strong competition among grocers, according to retail expert Stephanie Carls. Wells Fargo also found that the cost of dinner rolls fell by 22%, while stuffing and cranberries saw decreases of 3-4%.

However, not all components of the holiday meal are cheaper. Prices for produce and dairy have reportedly increased. The AFBF reported a 37% rise in the cost of sweet potatoes and a 61% increase for fresh vegetable trays, attributing the hikes to hurricane damage and farm labor shortages. Francisco Martin-Rayo of Helios AI noted that a drought in Mississippi specifically reduced sweet potato yields.

Despite the overall decrease, reports indicate many households continue to face tight budgets. According to NIQ retail data, some consumers are managing costs by hosting smaller gatherings or simplifying their meals. In response to financial pressures, cost-saving strategies have been suggested, with one television program highlighting the use of artificial intelligence to help reduce expenses. While some retailers are offering promotions, Ms. Carls cautioned that the current price relief may be temporary and linked to seasonal discounting.

Same Facts. Different Perspectives.

Two AI models. Two viewpoints. One factual foundation.

Perspective by Grok

• The holiday meal cost remains significantly higher than in previous years. Despite the recent drop, one report noted that this year's average price is still about 13% higher than it was before the pandemic. A separate estimate placed the cost for a similar meal at a considerably higher range of $80 to $95.

• Prices for several key ingredients have substantially increased. The cost of sweet potatoes reportedly rose by 37%, and fresh vegetable trays saw a 61% price hike. These increases are attributed to factors like hurricane damage, farm labor shortages, and a drought that specifically reduced sweet potato yields.

• Many households continue to experience financial strain, and the relief may be temporary. Retail data indicates that some consumers are managing tight budgets by hosting smaller gatherings or simplifying their holiday meals. A retail expert also cautioned that the current price relief could be temporary and linked primarily to seasonal discounting.

How it may affect me

As a U.S. reader:

• Your Thanksgiving grocery bill may be slightly lower this year, though it remains about 13% more expensive than before the pandemic.

• Expect to pay less for turkey and dinner rolls, but more for sweet potatoes and fresh vegetable trays due to weather events and labor shortages.

• The current price relief on some food items may be temporary, as an expert notes it could be linked to seasonal retailer promotions.

• Some households may manage tight budgets by hosting smaller gatherings or simplifying meals, according to retail data on consumer behavior.

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