The BareStory
The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September, according to a delayed report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Thursday. The figure surpassed economists' expectations of 50,000 new jobs. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in August, reaching its highest level since October 2021. The release of the report, originally scheduled for early October, was postponed due to a multi-week government shutdown that halted data collection and publication.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics also announced it will not release a full jobs report for October because of the shutdown. The agency stated that data required to calculate the October unemployment rate "could not be collected." As a result, select payroll data from October will be incorporated into the November jobs report, which has been rescheduled for release on December 16. The October unemployment statistic will be omitted.
The data presented a mixed picture for analysts and policymakers. Job growth figures for July and August were revised downward by a combined 33,000, and average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% in September. Some economists said the report showed resilience in the labor market before the shutdown, while others described it as a "muddy, two-month-old snapshot." Sector-specific data showed that healthcare added 43,000 positions, while transportation and warehousing lost 25,000 jobs.
The timing of future data releases will affect the Federal Reserve, as the combined October-November report will be published after its final policy meeting of the year concludes on December 10. Following the September report's release, market indicators showed a 35% chance of an interest rate cut in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. One analyst, Art Hogan of B. Riley Financial, said the probability of a cut had "diminished significantly," while Kay Haigh of Goldman Sachs Asset Management wrote that a cut remains possible due to "labor market softness."
How it may affect me
As a U.S. reader:
• A rising unemployment rate, now at its highest since October 2021, may signal increased competition for available jobs in the near future.
• Job prospects could vary by industry. Healthcare showed strong hiring, while the transportation and warehousing sector reported job losses.
• The government shutdown has created a data gap, leaving an incomplete picture of the nation’s economic health until a combined report is released in mid-December.
• Future borrowing costs for mortgages and loans face uncertainty, as the Federal Reserve will lack key jobs data for its upcoming interest rate decision.
