Economy

Shutdown Halts Official Jobs Data; Private Metrics Show Cooling Market

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Nov 7, 2025

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A continued government shutdown has prevented the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from publishing its official jobs report for October, the second consecutive month without federal employment data. The last available BLS report, from August, showed a 4.3% unemployment rate. In the absence of the new figures, which economists surveyed by one firm had expected would show a 60,000 job loss and a 4.5% unemployment rate, policymakers and analysts are relying on alternative private-sector data.

These private indicators present a mixed view of the labor market. A report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas stated that businesses announced 153,074 job cuts in October, the highest for that month in over two decades. Job postings on the employment site Indeed reportedly fell to their lowest level since February 2021. In contrast, payroll company ADP reported a modest gain of 42,000 private-sector jobs for the month. Data from Bank of America, according to one of its economists, showed payroll growth and "no significant slowdown."

Several economists have described the labor market as cooling but not collapsing. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said Monday that while the shutdown makes analysis difficult, the central bank is not "flying blind." Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee described a "low-hiring, low-firing environment." While layoff announcements have increased, some economists noted that state-level unemployment filings have not yet shown a corresponding spike.

The economic uncertainty has appeared to affect worker sentiment. According to data from the job-search website Glassdoor, employee confidence has fallen to a three-month low, and fewer workers who received job offers in October were reportedly declining them. The site’s chief economist, Daniel Zhao, attributed the drop in confidence to layoff fears and the government shutdown.

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• Some private-sector data indicates continued, if modest, job growth. A report from a payroll company showed a gain of 42,000 private-sector jobs in October. Additionally, an economist from a major bank stated that their internal data revealed payroll growth and "no significant slowdown," presenting a more positive picture than other indicators.

• Federal Reserve officials characterize the market as moderating, not collapsing. A Federal Reserve Governor said the central bank is not "flying blind" despite the shutdown, and the Chicago Fed President described the economy as being in a "low-hiring, low-firing environment." These official assessments suggest a managed cooling of the labor market rather than a sharp downturn.

• Announced layoffs have not yet resulted in higher unemployment filings. Some economists have noted that while there has been an increase in layoff announcements from businesses, this has not yet been matched by a corresponding spike in state-level unemployment claims. This disconnect suggests that the announced cuts may not be immediately translating into a higher number of people filing for unemployment benefits.

How it may affect me

As a U.S. reader:

• The shutdown's halt of official jobs data creates economic uncertainty, which may complicate personal financial planning and investment decisions for the public.

• Job seekers may face a more competitive market, as some reports show fewer new openings and a significant increase in announced corporate layoffs.

• Interest rates for mortgages and loans could be affected by Federal Reserve decisions made using incomplete economic data while the government is shut down.

• Increased layoff fears are reportedly making workers more cautious, with data showing fewer employees are declining new job offers they have received.

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